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AuthorTitleYearJournal/ProceedingsReftypeDOI/URL
Iglesias, T.M. and Oliveira, A.V.M. Empirical model of the impact of airport congestion management and regulation - the case of São Paulo Congonhas Airport.

[Abstract] [BibTeX]

 2015 Working Paper - Center for Airline Economics  article URL 
Abstract: In the liberalized air transport where the demand for air tickets grows considerably, the authorities implement restrictive measures in some airports to congestion control. In the Brazilian context, due to tariff releases implemented in the early 2000s, the emergence of new airlines, the increased in competition that led to lower ticket prices and the economic improvement in this country, set off a large increase in demand for Brazilian air transport. This article aims to investigate the relationship between perimeter rules implemented in Congonhas Airport, central airport located in São Paulo - Brazil's largest city, and the dynamic impact on short, medium and long-haul flights over the 2000s. In particular, the endeavor is to verify how restrictive strategies imposed by airport management led to change in the network planning. The main conclusion is that the perimeter rules adopted led to a decrease in demand for flights in the short and long periods, especially on long-haul flights. In addition, the results showed that the aircraft size increased, especially in the long period, whereas there was no significant impact on the number of planned flights. Besides of that, we identified a reduction in the percentage of passengers in connection, mainly for long-haul flights, and a significant decrease in the proportion of short flights delays. In this sense, the contribution of this study is the empirical investigation of the impact of restrictive measures in airport planning through an econometric analysis.
BibTeX: 
@article{cae1501,
  author = {T. M. Iglesias and and A. V. M. Oliveira},
  title = {Empirical model of the impact of airport congestion management and regulation - the case of São Paulo Congonhas Airport.},
  journal = {Working Paper - Center for Airline Economics},
  publisher = {São José dos Campos, Brazil},
  year = {2015},
  note = {Query date: 2020-03-13 09:42:22},
  url = {wp15_iglesiast_oliveira.pdf}
}
Resende, C.B. and Oliveira, A.V.M. Analysis of the asymmetric fuel cost transmission in the Brazilian domestic airline industry.

[Abstract] [BibTeX]

 2015 Working Paper - Center for Airline Economics  article URL 
Abstract: This article investigates the influence of fuel costs on airfares and the existence of an asymmetric fuel cost transmission in the Brazilian airline industry. Prior researches of the airline field haven’t focused on the fuel costs or in its asymmetric transmission. We conducted an empirical analysis using panel data for the Brazilian domestic airline industry and the results shows us that the fuel costs influence the fares, and that there is an asymmetric transmission of the fuel costs to the airfares, this meaning that the airfare responds faster to an oil price increase than to an oil price decrease, specially when there is no low cost carrier (LCC) in the route analyzed. The presence of a LCC can null the asymmetric transmission because they are presented as competitors in the market, and the asymmetry can be explained by market power. Another reason for the asymmetry existence is the practice of fuel hedge, the will of maximizing profits, the desire to improve service quality, etc. We also find that in Brazil, if a firm suffers from financial distress, then it can make the prices get lower, as it happens in the US industry argued by Hofer et al. (2009).
BibTeX: 
@article{cae1502,
  author = {C. B. Resende and and A. V. M. Oliveira},
  title = {Analysis of the asymmetric fuel cost transmission in the Brazilian domestic airline industry.},
  journal = {Working Paper - Center for Airline Economics},
  publisher = {São José dos Campos, Brazil},
  year = {2015},
  note = {Query date: 2020-03-13 09:42:22},
  url = {wp15_resendec_oliveira.pdf}
}
Abreu, T.P. and Oliveira, A.V.M. Evolution of the number of airlines on Brazilian routes: estimating the drivers of entry and competition

[Abstract] [BibTeX]

 2016 Working Paper - Center for Airline Economics  article URL 
Abstract: The present paper presents an empirical investigation on the evolution of the number of air carriers operating in Brazilian routes. We develop an econometric model to estimate the main factors that influence the entry of new carriers on existing domestic markets. Our major finding is that there is a ceteris paribus effect of a downward long-run trend in the route-level number of competing scheduled air carriers. We estimate that the trend effect has the most prominent effect on medium to long haul routes irrespective of market density. We suggest that economic entry barriers may be the primary source of such trend. We also inspect a set of trend-moderation and trend-intensification effects and find evidence that episodes of airline codeshare agreement and bankruptcy had estimated intensification effects whereas a low cost carrier entry produced an estimated moderation effect. Regarding the factors that directly affect the number of companies, we found that demand, GDP per capita and credit per capita has a positive effect of the number of carriers while income concentration (measured by Gini index), unit cost of fuel and the presence of hubs on the route discourage entrants.
BibTeX: 
@article{cae1601,
  author = {T. P. Abreu and and A. V. M. Oliveira},
  title = {Evolution of the number of airlines on Brazilian routes: estimating the drivers of entry and competition},
  journal = {Working Paper - Center for Airline Economics},
  publisher = {São José dos Campos, Brazil},
  year = {2016},
  note = {Query date: 2020-03-13 09:42:22},
  url = {wp16_abreut_oliveira.pdf}
}
Bendinelli, W.E., Bettini, H.F.J. and Oliveira, A.V.M. Airline delays, congestion internalization and non-price spillover effects of low cost carrier entry.

[Abstract] [BibTeX]

 2016 Working Paper - Center for Airline Economics  article URL 
Abstract: This paper develops an econometric model of flight delays to investigate the influence of competition and dominance on the incentives of carriers to maintain on-time performance. We consider both the route and the airport levels to inspect the local and global effects of competition, with a unifying framework to test the hypotheses of 1. airport congestion internalization and 2. the market competition-quality relationship in a single econometric model. In particular, we examine the impacts of the entry of low cost carriers (LCC) on the flight delays of incumbent full service carriers in the Brazilian airline industry. The main results indicate a highly significant effect of airport congestion self-internalization in parallel with route-level quality competition. Additionally, the potential competition caused by LCC presence provokes a global effect that suggests the existence of non-price spillovers of the LCC entry to non-entered routes.
BibTeX: 
@article{cae1602,
  author = {W. E. Bendinelli and H. F. J. Bettini and and A. V. M. Oliveira},
  title = {Airline delays, congestion internalization and non-price spillover effects of low cost carrier entry.},
  journal = {Working Paper - Center for Airline Economics},
  publisher = {São José dos Campos, Brazil},
  year = {2016},
  note = {Query date: 2020-03-13 09:42:22},
  url = {wp16_bendinelliw_bettinih_oliveira.pdf}
}
Massaretto, M. and Oliveira, A.V.M. An empirical model of airport concession revenues.

[Abstract] [BibTeX]

 2016 Working Paper - Center for Airline Economics  article URL 
Abstract: The exploitation of existing commercial opportunities is increasing the share of concession revenues in total revenues at airports. Hence, the dependence of concession revenues is also increasing and the airport managers are interested in understanding how to improve their financial results exploring the determinants of this new revenue source. Using a dataset from a survey of passenger consumption at 30 Brazilian airports, this paper develops an econometric model of the main determinants of concession revenues at airports. Moreover, it aims to test the impact of low-cost carrier (LCC) passengers on concession revenues combined with others determinants to understanding the behavior of this type of passengers. There is a lack of consensus about the impact of LCC passengers on concession revenues and this work shows a different perspective about the variable . Thus, understanding the determinants of concession revenues contributes to airport manager’s strategy on investments to increase others sources of revenue and understanding the behavior of LCC passengers contributes to increase the consumption per passenger at airport . Results suggest a statistically significant negative impact that LCC passengers have on concession revenue, but analyzing the LCC passengers that are traveling for leisure, the impact is statistically significant positive.
BibTeX: 
@article{cae1603,
  author = {M. Massaretto and and A. V. M. Oliveira},
  title = {An empirical model of airport concession revenues.},
  journal = {Working Paper - Center for Airline Economics},
  publisher = {São José dos Campos, Brazil},
  year = {2016},
  note = {Query date: 2020-03-13 09:42:22},
  url = {wp16_massarettom_oliveira.pdf}
}
Varella, R.R., Frazão, J.A. and Oliveira, A.V.M. Dynamic pricing and market segmentation responses to low-cost carrier entry.

[Abstract] [BibTeX]

 2016 Working Paper - Center for Airline Economics  article URL 
Abstract: This paper develops an empirical model of online airfares to inspect the impact of the entry of a low-cost carrier (LCC). We utilize a database collected from the website of an online travel agent in Brazil. We test whether incumbents reshape their airfare temporal profiles in an attempt to attract the price-sensitive passengers who constitute the target market of the newcomer. Our results suggest that LCC entry partially spoils the existing market segmentation schemes of incumbents, forcing them to revise their distribution management strategy, simplify their fare structure and migrate from a non-monotonic to a weakly monotonic price curve.
BibTeX: 
@article{cae1604,
  author = {R. R. Varella and J. A. Frazão and and A. V. M. Oliveira},
  title = {Dynamic pricing and market segmentation responses to low-cost carrier entry.},
  journal = {Working Paper - Center for Airline Economics},
  publisher = {São José dos Campos, Brazil},
  year = {2016},
  note = {Query date: 2020-03-13 09:42:22},
  url = {wp16_varellar_frazaoj_oliveira.pdf}
}
Resende, C.B. and Oliveira, A.V.M. Impactos de uma taxação ambiental sobre a demanda no transporte aéreo brasileiro.

[Abstract] [BibTeX]

 2017 Working Paper - Center for Airline Economics  article URL 
Abstract: Nos últimos anos, o tema das emissões de gases do efeito estufa e seus efeitos potencialmente danosos sobre o planeta entrou definitivamente na pauta de governos ao redor do mundo, com destaque aos encontros internacionais realizados que visaram acordar entre os países formas de equacionar o problema. Em se tratando de aeronaves, sabe-se que a queima do combustível as tornam fontes emissoras importantes de tais gases. Sabe-se que a taxação das passagens aéreas, por afetar diretamente a geração de viagens aéreas, tem potencial de atuar como instrumento arrefecedor de demanda e, por decorrência, do número de viagens e voos e, em última instância, do consumo de combustível. O presente trabalho visa quantificar essa relação, simulando a inserção de um imposto ambiental sobre o preço do querosene de aviação e seu impacto indireto sobre a demanda por transporte aéreo. Estimou-se, utilizando modelagem econométrica, que a demanda cairia frente a um aumento nos preços decorrente do imposto, mas que a reação ocorre de forma assimétrica conforme o mercado. Observou-se que rotas com perfil mais turísticos sofreriam uma redução de 6,06% para uma taxa de 10EUR, enquanto uma rota com perfil mais corporativo sofreriam queda de 2,35% para mesma taxa.
BibTeX: 
@article{cae1701,
  author = {C. B. Resende and and A. V. M. Oliveira},
  title = {Impactos de uma taxação ambiental sobre a demanda no transporte aéreo brasileiro.},
  journal = {Working Paper - Center for Airline Economics},
  publisher = {São José dos Campos, Brazil},
  year = {2017},
  note = {Query date: 2020-03-13 09:42:22},
  url = {wp17_resendec_oliveira.pdf}
}
Narcizo, R.R. and Oliveira, A.V.M. Uma análise empírica da padronização de frota de companhias aéreas e os efeitos de fatores operacionais.

[Abstract] [BibTeX]

 2018 Working Paper - Center for Airline Economics  article URL 
Abstract: O presente trabalho desenvolve um modelo econométrico para avaliar alguns dos fatores determinantes das estratégias de padronização de frota de companhias aéreas. Considera-se a padronização em nível de modelo de aeronave, com controles dos efeitos da padronização de fabricante e de família dos equipamentos de voo. O modelo empírico foi estimado com dados do transporte aéreo brasileiro e utiliza diversas variáveis operacionais, como tamanho e idade médios da frota, fluxo de passageiros por voo e número de destinos servidos. O efeito de fatores de custos operacionais e de demanda são também incorporados ao modelo. Os resultados apontam para uma tendência à maior padronização de frota no Brasil. Entretanto, aumentos nos custos com combustível podem atenuar essa tendência, por induzir uma busca por aeronaves com tecnologia mais avançada e menor consumo energético. Os resultados da pesquisa possuem implicações de políticas corporativas e públicas visando ao estímulo da gestão eficiente e sustentável da frota das companhias aéreas no país ao longo dos próximos anos.
BibTeX: 
@article{cae1702,
  author = {R. R. Narcizo and and A. V. M. Oliveira},
  title = {Uma análise empírica da padronização de frota de companhias aéreas e os efeitos de fatores operacionais.},
  journal = {Working Paper - Center for Airline Economics},
  publisher = {São José dos Campos, Brazil},
  year = {2018},
  note = {Query date: 2020-03-13 09:42:22},
  url = {wp18_narcizor_oliveira.pdf}
}
Brito, I.R. and Oliveira, A.V.M. Estudo econométrico dos efeitos das privatizações de aeroportos na formação de preços das companhias aéreas brasileiras.

[Abstract] [BibTeX]

 2019 Working Paper - Center for Airline Economics  article URL 
Abstract: Este trabalho desenvolve um modelo econométrico para testar possíveis impactos das privatizações de aeroportos na precificação das companhias aéreas no Brasil. Utilizou-se a metodologia de diferenças-em-diferenças, considerando como grupo de tratamento as rotas envolvendo aeroportos privatizados no período pós-concessão. Foram encontradas evidências de aumentos em torno de vinte por cento nos preços quando a rota envolve pelo menos um aeroporto privatizado, em comparação com rotas envolvendo aeroportos similares. Entretanto, os resultados apontam também para uma tendência de queda de preços nas rotas em aeroportos privatizados mais acentuada do que nos aeroportos do grupo de controle. Esse resultado também pôde ser observado na análise realizada utilizando o método das variáveis sintéticas. Esse comportamento é sugestivo de que barreiras à entrada são criadas com as obras de melhorias e expansão dos aeroportos concessionados, mas que no longo prazo há uma tendência a um maior engajamento em relações verticais entre companhias aéreas e aeroportos.
BibTeX: 
@article{cae1901,
  author = {I. R. Brito and and A. V. M. Oliveira},
  title = {Estudo econométrico dos efeitos das privatizações de aeroportos na formação de preços das companhias aéreas brasileiras.},
  journal = {Working Paper - Center for Airline Economics},
  publisher = {São José dos Campos, Brazil},
  year = {2019},
  note = {Query date: 2020-03-13 09:42:22},
  url = {wp19_britoi_oliveira.pdf}
}
Eufrásio, A.B., Eller, R.A. and Oliveira, A.V.M. Are on-time performance statistics worthless? An empirical study of the flight scheduling strategies of Brazilian airlines.

[Abstract] [BibTeX]

 2019 Working Paper - Center for Airline Economics  article URL 
Abstract: Airlines may manage their on-time performance by lengthening schedules with engineered increases in planned flight times. In Brazil, we suspect that a recent upsurge in the proportion of early flight arrivals may be the outcome of strategic additions of flight buffers by carriers, aiming to improve on-time performance statistics. However, longer times may also be the outcome of changes in the operating conditions of flights, such as the cost indexes. We develop an econometric method of high dimensional sparse (HDS) regression to decompose the extra schedule block times into operational and strategic factors, after accounting for the uncertainty in the scheduling decision-making. We estimate the impact of extra times on flight delays, allowing for moderation effects of runway congestion, slots, and propagated delay. We test and confirm the hypothesis of existence and effectiveness of schedule padding practices. Airlines apparently set longer extra times on denser routes, possibly to minimize the reputational risk contagion. We find that a 2012 on-time disclosure rule may have produced the unintended consequence of inducing the padding behavior by carriers. In contrast, slot regulation may mitigate the formation of extra block times.
BibTeX: 
@article{cae1902,
  author = {A. B. Eufrásio and R. A. Eller and and A. V. M. Oliveira},
  title = {Are on-time performance statistics worthless? An empirical study of the flight scheduling strategies of Brazilian airlines.},
  journal = {Working Paper - Center for Airline Economics},
  publisher = {São José dos Campos, Brazil},
  year = {2019},
  note = {Query date: 2020-03-13 09:42:22},
  url = {wp19_eufrasioa_ellerr_oliveira.pdf}
}
Narcizo, R.R., Oliveira, A.V.M. and Dresner, M. An empirical model of airline fleet standardization in Brazil: Assessing the dynamic impacts of mergers with an events study.

[Abstract] [BibTeX]

 2019 Working Paper - Center for Airline Economics  article URL 
Abstract: This paper develops an empirical model to investigate the strategic fleet management practices in the air transport industry regarding airline fleet standardization (AFS). We conduct an econometric analysis of the key drivers of AFS in Brazil and study the dynamic effects of five merger events. We find evidence of a significant drop in AFS following most of the consolidations, which is gradually reversed during the post-merger integration efforts. Additionally, except for the major full-service carrier, all other airlines had an estimated overall trend toward more intense fleet standardization over the entire period, revealing a stronger preference for seeking cost competitiveness over market opportunity when facing fierce competition in the market.
BibTeX: 
@article{cae1903,
  author = {R. R. Narcizo and A. V. M. Oliveira and and M. Dresner},
  title = {An empirical model of airline fleet standardization in Brazil: Assessing the dynamic impacts of mergers with an events study.},
  journal = {Working Paper - Center for Airline Economics},
  publisher = {São José dos Campos, Brazil},
  year = {2019},
  note = {Query date: 2020-03-13 09:42:22},
  url = {wp19_narcizor_oliveira_dresner.pdf}
}
Oliveira, B.F. and Oliveira, A.V.M. Empirical analysis of network construction determinants of Azul Airlines.

[Abstract] [BibTeX]

 2019 Working Paper - Center for Airline Economics  article URL 
Abstract: This paper examines the airline network construction of Azul, a Brazilian airline, investigating which and how factors affect Azul’s entry decision in a domestic route. Another subject of study is how the Azul merger with Trip, a regional airline, has affected its entry model. To do so, an econometric model of airline entry is developed, analyzing the entry determinants through the following group of characteristics: route distance, demand, city-pair and competition. Results show that Azul’s business model is based on connecting new destination, not served by other airlines yet, with one of its hubs, and consistently avoiding direct competition with dominant airlines at the route and airport level. Regarding the effect of the merger, the results suggest that Azul’s entry model has shifted away from its original model based on JetBlue’s towards a regional based model, increasingly entering shorter routes and regional airports through time.
BibTeX: 
@article{cae1904,
  author = {B. F. Oliveira and and A. V. M. Oliveira},
  title = {Empirical analysis of network construction determinants of Azul Airlines.},
  journal = {Working Paper - Center for Airline Economics},
  publisher = {São José dos Campos, Brazil},
  year = {2019},
  note = {Query date: 2020-03-13 09:42:22},
  url = {wp19_oliveirab_oliveira.pdf}
}
Oliveira, R.P., Oliveira, A.V.M. and Lohmann, G. A network design analysis of airline business model adaptation in the face of competition and consolidation.

[Abstract] [BibTeX]

 2019 Working Paper - Center for Airline Economics  article URL 
Abstract: This paper investigates strategic drivers of network planning of the major airlines in Brazil, with the development of a two-stage methodology to empirically identify the network-related attributes influencing their business models. Using previously conceived business model archetypes of low-cost (LCC), full-service (FSC) and regional (RGC) carriers, we estimate the decision-making dynamics regarding Brazilian carriers’ network design over time. Our main contribution lies in the hypothesis that airlines’ networks may be strategically designed in an evolutionary pattern, blending archetypical ones. Our results suggest imitative behavior between almost all pairs of carriers, with these behaviors being most markedly manifested as convergence of strategies between the two FSCs in the market with respect to the oldest LCC. In addition, consolidations in Brazil appear to have been dependent on the underlying business models of the participant carriers, in particular that of the carrier being acquired, which may have served as a stepping stone for the market repositioning of the acquiring airline.
BibTeX: 
@article{cae1905,
  author = {R. P. Oliveira and A. V. M. Oliveira and and G. Lohmann},
  title = {A network design analysis of airline business model adaptation in the face of competition and consolidation.},
  journal = {Working Paper - Center for Airline Economics},
  publisher = {São José dos Campos, Brazil},
  year = {2019},
  note = {Query date: 2020-03-13 09:42:22},
  url = {wp19_oliveirar_oliveira_lohmann.pdf}
}
Szenczuk, J.B. and Oliveira, A.V.M. Econometric analysis of flight times and the effects of Performance-Based Navigation.

[Abstract] [BibTeX]

 2019 Working Paper - Center for Airline Economics  article URL 
Abstract: Empirical studies of the determinants of flight delays typically take into consideration factors such as weather, airport and air traffic characteristics, competition, seasonality and secular effects. An unexplored factor in this literature is the effect of the Performance Based Navigation (PBN) concept. PBN is an advanced, satellite-enabled form of air navigation that creates precise and shorter 3-D flight paths. These new procedures can improve air traffic flow and increase airspace capacity, possibly reducing flight times and delays. This paper provides an econometric model to test the impacts of PBN on the average flight times of airlines in the domestic air transport industry of Brazil.
BibTeX: 
@article{cae1906,
  author = {J. B. Szenczuk and and A. V. M. Oliveira},
  title = {Econometric analysis of flight times and the effects of Performance-Based Navigation.},
  journal = {Working Paper - Center for Airline Economics},
  publisher = {São José dos Campos, Brazil},
  year = {2019},
  note = {Query date: 2020-03-13 09:42:22},
  url = {wp19_szenczukj_oliveira.pdf}
}